How has COVID-19 impacted our collective and independent decision making processes? In this piece, I want to highlight some recent academic research which suggests that COVID may have affected people's attitude to decision making. In light of this, I want to offer some insights into why decision making is so important, outline some different approaches, and finally offer some advice for making better decisions.
"Making good decisions is a crucial skill at every level. It needs to be taught explicitly to everyone in organizations that are based on knowledge." Peter F. Drucker
The pandemic continues to rumble on (omicron, anyone?) and inevitably, as we approach the end of another year, so does life and work! Time has flown by in 2021 but we are more aware of our personal and professional capabilities in this time of change. As we look forward to 2022, we all have resolutions and choices to make so that we can continue to adapt to this strange new world!
Scientists surveyed around 1,500 Americans online from April to June 2020. Participants were asked to rate their level of worry about the COVID-19 pandemic and complete a number of tests to measure their basic cognitive abilities. Results were then compared with the same tests completed before the pandemic.
They concluded that the worry related to COVID may have affected people's basic information processing ability, which could affect decision-making abilities. This has implications from a public health point of view, as it may influence people's decisions about getting a vaccine, taking a business trip, or throwing a party. As they said,
"Consistent with our predictions, we observed a marked decrease in individual’s executive control as a function of individual differences in experienced fear/worry."
Margie Warrell, a leadership expert, confirms that operating from a place of fear doesn’t allow us to tap into our full cognitive abilities. In a New York Times article on how to cope when everything is changing, she suggests that this fear/worry mind-set also “undermines the quality of our decision making, stifles our creativity and impairs our ability to take the most constructive actions we have within us to take”.
Vable’s Founder and CEO, Matthew Dickinson has a favourite organisational psychologist. Benjamin Hardy, Ph.D writes in one of his blog posts,
"When you lose hope in your future, then you have what Carol Dweck calls a “fixed mindset,” or the belief that our traits and abilities can’t be changed. In order to have a growth mindset — a belief that you can grow through hard work and perseverance — you must have hope that the future can get better.
When you have hope, you experience setbacks differently. You’ll learn from them so you can do better in the future. This doesn’t mean you’re not bummed when they happen, but it does mean that you know how to emotionally regulate and cope. Whenever you experience failure, give yourself some space to recover, and then look at how you could improve."
The point is, we don’t have to be afraid. If we change the way we view our negative experiences (uncertainty, fear and worry about the future to name just a few), we can focus on growth and positivity, reduce anxiety, and improve our decision making along the way.
I’ve been researching library and information conferences for next year: which conference will make the most impact, how many should we attend and in which countries, who in the team will attend etc.? It’s an important tactical decision. Many library and information managers will also be making similar decisions - not just about event attendance but a hundred other important things!
All managers make preventable mistakes. For instance, we sometimes underestimate how long something will take or we fail to take advantage of something that would benefit us or our team. This is why library directors and managers need training on decision making. It’s one of the most basic and fundamental of all managerial activities.
It’s about working in a more holistic way. We need to understand the factors that influence decision making and learn to deal with them so we can increase our chances of making the best possible decision in any given situation. If decision making is so important, should we be relying on instinct or logic?
There are two modes of processing information which affect decision making: System 1 and System 2. These two modes of thinking were first described by Israeli-American psychologist and behavioural economist, Daniel Kahneman, and in 2011, he published a book called ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’.
Kahneman suggests that System 1 helps us to conserve our mental energy for the tasks that really require it but it also means our mind is limiting the depth of our intelligence and capacity to understand complex situations. The lesson is, instead of accepting the obvious answer, pause for a second and try to engage your savvy System 2 thinking. Don’t let your lazy instinctive brain try to take the easy way out!
Heads and directors of library services, or indeed any other managers, are responsible for making all types of decisions. These decisions can be split into two groups; there are regular events that take place on an annual, monthly and daily basis AND occasions which call for immediate action. Here are some examples from the first group:
The second group includes:
These last types, especially “crisis” and “problem”, often cause difficulties for managers. They require an element of rapid decision making - less system 2 and more system 1. With something as unprecedented as responding to COVID, crisis decisions have had long reaching consequences. As “crisis” has moved into “strategy”, people have had to adapt to change and create a new type of future.
Why do many people have a strong aversion to making difficult decisions? Decision making can be stressful and create a high level of anxiety. Some decisions are stressful because the outcome might have extensive consequences, and/or they might impact other people. It might just be because we all experience this process in different ways, as we know, some people find it easier than others to make a decision.
As the research above demonstrated, sometimes we struggle to make decisions because of external stress factors - we are all at the mercy of our environments. Domestic, professional, and other community factors can have an impact.
This is why, since the global COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen an increase in HR articles focussing on the S in ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) - the social impacts of a business, particularly on its workforce and wider supply chain are more important than ever.
Having relevant information at our fingertips helps with decision making - after all, being 'forewarned is forearmed'! Now that we are aware that there may be ongoing consequences of the pandemic, we can make allowances for them. Here are some ideas for making better decisions:
Decisions had to be made quickly during the early and turbulent days of the pandemic - there was little time for premortems or “sleeping on it”. But there was also no time for procrastination or rigid thinking. The crisis has transformed - and continues to transform - organisations but we have to create a clear vision to reap the benefits and prepare for the future.
There is a great HBR article on why we dodge difficult decisions, in it Rima Pundir says,
While we would never advise you make split-second decisions and just plunge in without weighing the pros and cons – you do have to make the decision quickly and concisely and remember these thoughts.
How do you make your decisions? Do you rely more on system 1 or system 2? What’s the best decision you made in 2021?